Whether or not a government deficit is sustainable has important implications for policy. If the debt of a nation is sustainable, then it implies that the government should have no incentive to default on its internal debt. In this article we examine whether or not the debt-GDP ratios of the G-7...

This paper investigates the volatility of the rates of output growth for the U.S., Canada and the UK. We empirically characterize the volatility of the growth rate of real GDP and, at the same time, we hope we can successfully identify business cycle turning points. The empirical results show...

This paper investigates whether there are three distinctive features in financial asset prices, that is, time-varying conditional volatility, jumps and the component factors of volatility. It adopts a component-GARCH-Jump, which can efficiently capture the three features simultaneously. Our...

This paper employs a Markov Switching Panel model to measure business cycle turning points in Japan. This Markov Switching Panel model is simple and can easily be estimated following Hamilton's [J.D. Hamilton, A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business...

We assess the validity of the Export-led Growth (ELG) and the Growth-driven Export (GDE) hypotheses in Taiwan by testing for Granger causality using the vector error correction model (VECM) and the bounds testing methodology developed by Pesaran {\it et al.} (PSS, 2001). The empirical results...

Using Taiwan data, we employ Dueker's (1997, 2002) Probit-Markov switching model toevaluate the performance of Taiwan''s leading indicator in identifying turning points.The merit of the Probit-MS model is that it incorporates the dependent structure of the leading indicator which is not taken...

By using an extended dataset for 19 developed countries, this study employs a recent unit root test to re-examine the issue of the non-stationarity of real per capita GDP. The results convincingly support the view that the real per capita GDPs of Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the...

This paper explores the linear and non-linear causal relationship between stock price and trading volume in China. The empirical results substantiate that there is a long-run level equilibrium relationship between the stock price and trading volume in China. The results from the linear causality...

This paper investigates whether or not there is co-waved merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in 26 OECD countries. We apply the Markov Switching model to panel data (MSP hereafter), an approach which has not previously been attempted. Two distinct regimes are recognized in emerge from M&A...

In this paper the stochastic behavior of the returns on real estate investment trusts (REITs) is examined by using the unobserved component Markov switching (UC-MS) model. This approach endogenously permits the volatility to switch as the date and regime change and allows us to decompose the...