The one-year prediction error (one-year MSEP) proposed by Merz and Wüthrich has become a market-standard approach for the assessment of reserve volatilities for Solvency II purposes. However, this approach is declined in a univariate framework. Moreover, Braun proposed a closed-formed...

Subspace state space algorithm of autors P. van Overschee and B. de Moor is considered and it's shown to be useful tool in parameter estimation of models in state space or classical forms. The results of N4SID algorithm is used as initial guess in iterative methods (such as prediction error...

Let[Sigma]be an unknown covariance matrix. Perturbation (in)equalities are derived for various scale-invariant functionals of[Sigma]such as correlations (including partial, multiple and canonical correlations) or angles between eigenspaces. These results show that a particular confidence set...

This paper is concerned with the use of regression methods to predict values of a response variable when that variable is naturally ordered. An application to the prediction of student examination performance is provided and it is argued that, although individual scores are unlikely to be well...

A well-known problem in multiple regression is that it is possible to reject the hypothesis that all slope parameters are equal to zero, yet when applying the usual Student's T-test to the individual parameters, no significant differences are found. An alternative strategy is to estimate...

Deteriorated water mains fail frequently causing service disruption and other inconvenience to the customers. Therefore, the utilities must conduct repair, rehabilitation and/or replacement in a timely manner to satisfy the needs of the customers. To succeed in this process the utilities must...

When VAR models are used to predict future outcomes, the forecast error can be substantial. Through imposition of restrictions on the off-diagonal elements of the parameter matrix, however, the information in the process may be condensed to the marginal processes. In particular, if the...