This paper introduces a new tail risk measure based on the risk-neutral excess expected shortfall of a cross-section of stock returns. We propose a novel way to risk neutralize the returns without relying on option price information. Empirically, we illustrate our methodology by estimating a...

Inspired by the preferred-habitat theory, we propose parametric interest rate models that split the term structure into segments. The proposed models are compared to successful term structure benchmarks based on out-of-sample forecasting exercises using US Treasury data. We show that...

In this paper, we analyze the importance of curvature term structure movements on forecasts of interest rate means. An extension of the exponential three-factor Diebold and Li (2006) model is proposed, where a fourth factor captures a second type of curvature. The new factor increases model...

This paper employs a recently developed parametric technique to obtain density forecasts for the Brazilian exchange rate, using the exchange rate options market. Empirical results suggest that the option market contains useful information about future exchange rate density. These results...

A short review of the literature discusses different approaches on strategy, their agreeded and disagreeded points, and also discusses the foundations that are used to separate multiple perspectives on the subject according to several scholars. The paradigm distinction proposed by Burrell &...