This paper explores what factor is important to replicate U.S. fertility transition in the last two centuries. We solve a multiperiod version of the model of Kimura and Yasui (J Econ Growth 15(4):323-351, 2010) numerically, conducting several experiments based on it. We find that the main trend...

Given an owner's noncommitment timing strategy and a manager's hidden action, we consider how the optimal compensation contract for the manager is designed and how the corresponding timing decisions to launch the project and replace the manager are determined. Using a real options approach, we...

The Basel II Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of...

The spatial structure of transport network is subject to increasing returns in transportation, distance and density economies. Transport costs between locations are thus in general endogenous, and are determined by the interaction between the spatial distribution of transport demand and these...

This paper examines the roles of futures prices of crude oil, gasoline, ethanol, corn, soybeans and sugar in the energy-grain nexus. It also investigates the own- and cross-market impacts for lagged grain trading volume and open interest in the energy and grain markets. According to the results,...

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition,...

Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, widely published, intensively discussed and comprehensively used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some...

This paper examines risk transmission and migration among six US measures of credit and market risk during the full period 2004-2011 period and the 2009-2011 recovery subperiod, with a focus on four sectors related to the highly volatile oil price. There are more long-run equilibrium risk...

Comparative analysis of CSR allows characterizing both corporate society and market institutions. Even though transition economies have backwardness of corporate governance institutions and include premature CSR, Russian CSR, paradoxically speaking, can be regarded as hyper one, and specific...

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is commonly used for financial risk measurement. It has recently become even more important, especially during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. We pro- pose some novel nonlinear threshold conditional autoregressive VaR (CAViaR) models that incorporate intra-day price...