Die Basis konjunkturell relevanter Daten ist für Liechtenstein spärlich, zudem ist die Publikationsverzögerung teilweise hoch und die Frequenz oft tief. Das BIP liegt nur auf Jahresbasis vor und weist eine Publikationsverzögerung von 15 Monaten auf. Im vorliegenden Papier wird durch die...

The Google Insights data are a collection of recorded Internet searches for a huge number of the keywords, which are available since January 2004. These searches represent a kind of revealed perceptions of Internet users, which are a (possibly not entirely representative) sample of the general...

We look at how large international datasets can improve forecasts of national activity. Weuse the case of New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply “data-rich” factorand shrinkage methods to tackle the problem of efficiently handling hundreds of predictordata series from many...

The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection crite- rion measures economic exante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows. Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection bias nor to the risk of...

This paper considers factor forecasting with national versus factor forecasting with international data. We forecast German GDP based on a large set of about 500 time series, consisting of German data as well as data from Euro-area and G7 countries. For factor estimation, we consider standard...

We look at how large international datasets can improve forecasts of national activity. We use the case of New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply data-richʺ factor and shrinkage methods to tackle the problem of efficiently handling hundreds of predictor data series from many...

The Google Insights data are a collection of recorded Internet searches for a huge number of the keywords, which are available since January 2004. These searches represent a kind of revealed perceptions of Internet users, which are a (possibly not entirely representative) sample of the general...

Real-time assessment of quarterly GDP growth rates is crucial for evaluation of economy's current perspectives given the fact that respective data is normally subject to substantial publication delays by national statistical agencies. Large information sets of real-time indicators which could be...

The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection crite- rion measures economic exante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows. Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection bias nor to the risk of...

We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to include disaggregate information or disaggregate variables in the aggregate model as opposed to first forecasting the disaggregate variables separately and then aggregating those...