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method has the best forecasting accuracy with respect to time series models, such as seasonal ARIMA and ARCH models. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008482038
integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with some variations to identify how to achieve the smallest root mean squared forecast … seasonal adjustment and the Easter effect. The results show that Akaike and Schwarz are better criteria for forecasting when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010658765
A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605330
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709
A small labour market model for the six largest euro-area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium) is estimated in a state space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: trend labour force, trend labour productivity, long-run inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099749
. Preliminary evidence that mixed frequency based forecasting models yield improvements over standard fixed frequency models is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010334265
. Preliminary evidence that mixed frequency based forecasting models yield improvements over standard fixed frequency models is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009766691
This paper discusses identification, specification, estimation and forecasting for a general class of periodic … formulations are introduced for exact maximum likelihood estimation, component estimation and forecasting. Identification issues …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011350384
. Preliminary evidence that mixed frequency based forecasting models yield improvements over standard fixed frequency models is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678598
According to the growing “Google econometrics” literature, Google queries may help predict economic activity. The aim of our paper is to test whether these data can enhance predictions of youth unemployment in France.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048762