We evaluate the interaction of inflation and growth forecast errors based on 17 distinct forecasts for the German economy for the period from 1970 to 2004. The forecasts were produced by 14 institutions. Our findings show that, in general, the forecasters did not share a common belief about the...

In this article, we analyse stylized facts for Germany's business cycle at the firm level. Based on longitudinal firm-level data from the Bundesbank's balance sheet statistics covering, on average, 55 000 firms per year from 1971 to 1998, we estimate transition probabilities of a firm in a...

It has been argued that business-cycle volatility dampens growth. This paper argues that this is no stylised fact. A review of the literature reveals that arguments in favour of no, or even a positive, impact of business-cycle volatility on growth are as convincing as the arguments pointing in...