Showing 71 - 80 of 409
Using a modified version of the model presented by Belke and Gros (2007), we analyze the stability of adjustment in a currency union. Using econometric estimates for parameter values we check the stability conditions for the 11 original EMU countries and Greece. We found significant instability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420861
Utilizing the microdata from a first cross-section of a new household survey at the University of Hamburg, we analyse if consumers respond to their own inflation expectations and economic news that they have observed recently when they plan to adjust their savings portfolio in the next year. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420863
Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy. This paper evaluates the quality of major real macroeconomic Euro area variables, published by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420867
Using a modified version of the model presented by Belke and Gros (2007), we analyze the stability of adjustment in a currency union. Using econometric estimates for parameter values we check the stability conditions for the 11 original EMU countries and Greece. We found significant instability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010460477
Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an increasingly important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy and offer an alternative channel of uncertainty - data uncertainty. This paper adds on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011341024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011438766
The paper reports results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Relying on 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and find that they are pronounced conservative in the sense, that they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011985264
Based on a panel of annual data for 17 growth and inflation forecasts from 14 institutions for Germany, we analyse forecast accuracy for the periods before and after the Great Recession, including measures of directional change accuracy based on Receiver Operating Curves (ROC).We find only small...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011985268
We analyze a corpus of 564 business cycle forecast reports for the German economy. The dataset covers nine institutions and 27 years. From the entire reports we select the parts that refer exclusively to the forecast of the German economy. Sentiment and frequency analysis confirm that the mode...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011985269
In den entwickelten Volkswirtschaften ist das Produktivitätswachstum seit den 1970er Jahren tendenziell gesunken, zeigen die Statistiken - eine Beobachtung, die angesichts der weitreichenden Digitalisierung der Wirtschaft erstaunt. Sie könnte auf Messfehlern beruhen, ist sie aber realistisch,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012004641