This paper examines recovery scenarios for the Irish economy. It estimates that the growth rate in potential output is 3% a year. This takes account of a permanent loss of output of 10% of GDP as a result of the recession. On this basis, and taking account of government fiscal action this year...

The experience of the last five years has been truly exceptional, involving the worst economic crisis in Ireland since the Second World War. The legacy effects of this crisis include a dramatic increase in the indebtedness of the state as well as an exceptionally high level of unemployment. The...

The HERMES macroeconomic model has been used extensively for over 25 years to carry out medium-term forecasting and scenario analysis of the Irish economy. Most recently the model has been used to generate the scenarios underpinning the 2013 edition of the ESRI's Medium-Term Review. In the long...