Non-random assignment of students to teachers can bias value added estimates of teachers’ causal effects. Rothstein (2008) shows that typical value added models indicate large counter-factual effects of 5th grade teachers on students’ 4th grade learning, implying that assignments do not...

The introduction of inflation targeting has led to major progress in practical monetary policy. Recent debate has focused on the interest-rate assumption underlying published projections of inflation and other target variables. This paper discusses the role of alternative interest-rate paths in...

At the risk of sounding like a crass economist, I want to assert at the outset that one major purpose of the K-12 educational system is “vocational” in the broad sense. Specifically, the K-12 system is a mechanism for preparing cadres of 18-year-olds (many of whom will get some higher...

Central banks, which used to be so secretive, are communicating more and more these days about their monetary policy. This development has proceeded hand in glove with a burgeoning new scholarly literature on the subject. The empirical evidence, reviewed selectively here, suggests that...

We show the unique form that must be taken by a tax system based entirely on realization accounting to implement a uniform capital income tax, or, equivalently, a uniform wealth tax. This system combines elements of an accrual based capital income tax and a traditional cashflow tax, having many...

Over the last two decades, communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. These real-world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication—mostly empirical, and almost all of it written in this decade. We survey this...

My assignment is to survey the main questions swirling around monetary policy today. I emphasize three words in this sentence, each for a different reason. “Main” is because one person’s side issue is another’s main issue. So I had to be both selective and judgmental in compiling my...

Lojack is a stolen vehicle tracking technology that achieves extremely high recovery rates. Ayres and Levitt (1998) show that introduction of the system produced large reductions in vehicle thefts in areas where it was implemented in the United States. The reduced theft risk was shared by all...

Research on central banking is a growth industry. A computer search on the phrase central banking conducted on econlit, turned up 980 references in the 1970s, 1929 in the 1980s and a staggering 4921 in the 1900s. Performance like that does not quite match the stock market, but it is close. I...

As the title of this essay suggests, I believe there are both positive and negative effects of inequality. On the positive side, differential rewards provide incentives for individuals to work hard, invest and innovate. On the negative side, differences in rewards that are unrelated to...