exposure to risk. In this paper, we test whether overconfident people underestimate the probability of incurring an avalanche … under different levels of avalanche risk, we measured individual cognitive traits and then used a random effect logit model … overestimate their knowledge are also more likely to take the risk associated with a ski trip exposed to avalanche danger. This …

downside risk and recognizes the heavytail feature of the asset return distributions. Then we show that optimal portfolio sizes …

techniques to account for uncertainty in the set of underlying factors that are chosen among a very large pool of explanatory … variables in order to minimize the risk of omitted variable bias. Our analysis indicates that the socioeconomic background of …

, the integrated risk of group assets can be divided to hedging risk and independent risk, and the corresponding models are … given. So we could analyze the price risk of group assets in more particular way. The conclusions show that assets are … hedged in simple way of one to one can not eliminates completely their market risk in many cases. So there should be an …

downside risk and recognizes the heavy tail feature of the asset return distributions. Then we show that optimal portfolio …

fiscal uncertainty; constant horizon forecasts are obtained through mixture distributions. The scheme we propose has several … advantages over previous uncertainty measures. First (as opposed to recent proposals) it results in a forward-looking measure … model uncertainty. Fourth, it is comprehensive in accounting both for the critical welfare component of public expenditures …

This paper extends the procedure developed by Jurado et al. (2015) to allow the estimation of measures of uncertainty … overall macroeconomic uncertainty. To demonstrate the proposed method we consider two applications. First, we estimate UK … macroeconomic uncertainty due to external shocks and show that this component has become increasingly important over time for …