Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models,...

This paper puts forward a data collection method to measure weekly consumer confidence at the individual level. The data thus obtained allow to statistically analyze the dynamic correlation of such a consumer confidence indicator and to draw inference on transition rates, which is not possible...

We analyze the classical inventory model with backordering, where the inventory position is controlled by an order level, order quantity policy. The cost for a backorder contains a fixed and a time-proportional component. Demand can be driven by any discrete process. Order lead times may be...

Based on simple time series plots and periodic sample autocorrelations, we document that monthly river flow data display long memory, in addition to pronounced seasonality. In fact, it appears that the long memory characteristics vary with the season. To describe these two properties jointly, we...

This article proposes a modified method for the construction of diffusion indexes in macroeconomic forecasting using principal component regres- sion. The method aims to maximize the amount of variance of the origi- nal predictor variables retained by the diffusion indexes, by matching the data...

Subjective probabilities play an important role in marketing research, for example where individuals rate the likelihood that they will purchase a new to develop product. The tau-equivalent model can describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability....

In this chapter we discuss a tactical optimisation problem that arises in a multistage distribution system where customer orders can be delivered from any stockpoint. A simple rule to allocate orders to locations is a break quantity rule, which routes large orders to higher-stage stockpoints and...

Whenever demand for a single item can be categorized into classes of different priority, an inventory rationing policy should be considered. In this paper we analyse a continuous review (s,Q) model with lost sales and two demand classes. A so-called critical level policy is applied to ration the...

Pre-election polls can suffer from survey effects. For instance, individuals taking part in the poll may become more aware of the upcoming election so that they become more inclined to vote. Such effects cause biases in forecasted outcomes of elections. We propose a simple methodology that takes...

When tracks are out of service for maintenance during a certain period, trains cannot be operated on those tracks. This leads to a modified timetable, and results in infeasible rolling stock and crew schedules. Therefore, these schedules need to be repaired. The topic of this paper is the...