Using a new variable based on a model of dividend smoothing, we find that dividend growth is highly predictable and that cash flow news contributes importantly to return variability. Cash flow betas derived from this predictability are central to explaining the size effect in the cross section...

The authors examine the extent to which futures contributed to the stock market crash. Correcting for nonsynchronous trading, they find that this explained little of the behavior of the markets, leaving breakdown as the most probable explanation. The authors investigate breakdown by analyzing...

Previous research has documented robust links between seasonal variation in length of day, seasonal depression (known as seasonal affective disorder, or SAD), risk aversion, and stock market returns. The influence of SAD on market returns, known as the SAD effect, is large. The authors study the...

This concept paper aims to explain the challenges of social protection systematisation, drawing on global lessons in order to strengthen EU Development Cooperation’s support for inclusive, nationally owned, and sustainable social protection policies and programmes within partner countries. In...