The purpose of this paper is to provide a method by which the economic value of loan advice can be measured. This is achieved by defining advice in terms of the forecasts of future repayments in order to produce a disutility-minimising loan strategy. The economic value of this strategy is then...

A new method of assessing the comparative quality of forecasting models is introduced. This method focuses on the quality of forecasting models over a set of series (cf. the traditionally adopted series-by-series approach)–with a forecasting model that produces good forecasts over a series set...

This paper provides a formula for a commonly used measure of the economic value of asset return predictability. In doing this, we find that there is a strong connection between this measure and a traditional statistical measure of predictive quality. In particular, we demonstrate that the...

Even though volatility spillover effects in global equity markets have been documented extensively, the transmission of illiquidity across national borders has not. In this paper, we propose a multiplicative error model (MEM) for the dynamics of illiquidity. We empirically study the illiquidity...

This paper examines the determinants of future U.S. monetary policy by studying the relationship between a predictor of the future direction of monetary policy and a pertinent information set. Specifically, we investigate the impact of the surprise component of an array of macro-economic...

The explanatory power of idiosyncratic volatility is examined in the context of the dynamics of market volatility. Results based on high frequency individual Standard & Poor's (S&P) 100 stock data indicate that aggregate idiosyncratic volatility has a significant and persistent impact on market...

This paper investigates the relationship between the performance of equity and the length of the investment horizon used by investors. We examine optimal portfolio time diversification and two definitions of "ex ante" time diversification. Using almost two centuries of US and UK data we find...

"This paper introduces a new econometric model of the mispricing associated with (contemporaneous) differences between spot and futures prices. Like existing models, this model assumes that the level of arbitrage activity is positively related to the magnitude of absolute mispricing. However,...