This paper analyzes the dynamics of the Spanish public debt-GDP ratio during the period 1850-2021. We use recent procedures to test for explosive bubbles under the presence of time-varying volatility (Harvey, Leybourne, Sollis and Taylor, 2016; Harvey, Leybourne and Zu, 2019, 2020; Kurozumi, Skorobotov...

Der Umgang mit staatlich verantworteten Menschenrechtsverletzungen in Autokratien stellt die Weltgemeinschaft noch immer vor große Herausforderungen. Weder über militärische (humanitäre) Interventionen, Wirtschaftssanktionen noch über die Variation bei den Entwicklungshilfeleistungen konnte...

Since 2001 the Statistical Offices in Germany offer access to micro level panel data that linked information from various waves of a survey over time. These panel data enormously extended the research potential of data from official statistics by allowing dynamic analyses and control for...

This paper investigates the feasibility of using earlier provisional data to improve the now- and forecasting accuracy of final and official statistics. We propose the use of a multivariate structural time series model which includes common trends and seasonal components to combine official...

This paper disentangles the added value of using high-frequency-based (realized) covariance measures on multivariate volatility forecasting into two pillars: the realized variances and realized correlations and quantifies the corresponding economic gains using a broad set of portfolio...

This paper constructs a two-country model to investigate how tariff policy influences productivity growth through adjustments in industry location patterns. The locations of production and innovation are determined based on trade barriers and imperfect knowledge dissemination. Tariff policy has...

In this paper, I study Ukraine's heterogeneous and time-variant pass-through from the money market interest rate to bank deposit and lending rates. I utilize a new panel dataset containing individual banks' characteristics and prudential indicators over 2019-2023, a period comprising the...

The disconnect between the exchange rate and its macroeconomic fundamentals has been extensively discussed in the literature. It nonetheless continues to pose theoretical and empirical challenges in the literature. This study examines the relationship between the exchange rate and its...