Of the several models introduced for the modelling of electricity prices, the one proposed by Geman and Roncoroni, that we will refer to as the ‘threshold model’, has exhibited significant success in both its statistical properties and ability to accurately replicate trajectories of...

Nonlinear autoregressive Markov regime-switching models are intuitive and frequently proposed time series approaches for the modelling of electricity spot prices. In this paper such models are compared to an ordinary linear autoregressive model with regard to their forecast performance. The...

The liberalization of electricity markets has triggered research in econometric modelling and forecasting of electricity spot prices. Moreover, both the demand and the supply of electricity are subject to weather conditions. Therefore, we examine the relation between hourly electricity spot...

In the last decades a liberalization of the electric market has started; prices are now determined on the basis of contracts on regular markets and their behaviour is mainly driven by usual supply and demand forces. A large body of literature has been developed in order to analyze and forecast...

In this paper we study the effect that mean-reverting components in the arithmetic dynamics of electricity spot price have on the price of a call option on a swap. Our model allows for seasonal effects, spikes, and negative values of the price of electricity. We show that for sufficiently large...