This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only...

This paper discusses the evaluation problem using observational data when the timing of treatment is an outcome of a stochastic process. We show that, without additional assumptions, it is not possible to estimate the average treatment effect and treatment on the treated. It is, however,...

This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only...

Often, a treatment and the outcome of interest are characterized by the moment they occur, and these moments are realizations of stochastic processes with dependent unobserved determinants. We develop a simple and intuitive method for inference on the treatment effect. The method can be...

This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only...

Often, a treatment and the outcome of interest are characterized by the moment they occur, and these moments are realizations of stochastic processes with dependent unobserved determinants. We develop a simple and intuitive method for inference on the treatment effect. The method can be...

We present new Monte Carlo evidence regarding the feasibility of separating causality from selection within non-experimental interval-censored duration data, by means of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE). Key findings are: i) the NPMLE is extremely reliable, and it...

This paper considers the definition and identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under sequential random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different...

We reanalyze the effects of a Danish active labour market program social experiment, that included a range of sub-treatments, including monitoring, job search assistance and training. Previous studies have shown that the overall effect of the experiment is positive. We apply newly developed...

Often, a treatment and the outcome of interest are characterized by the moment they occur, and these moments are realizations of stochastic processes with dependent unobserved determinants. We develop a simple and intuitive method for inference on the treatment effect. The method can be...