This paper develops a theoretical framework that formalizes a guerrilla movement's observed oil pipeline attack decision. The movement's decision is modeled as an infinite horizon Markov Decision Process, where each period it chooses to attack or not attack the pipeline. For extortionary...

Colombian guerrilla movements have increasingly been associated with illicit activity and terror. This paper is divided into two main sections. The first traces the roots of the movements and describes how traditional Marxist-style guerrilla groups became more associated with crime and...

This paper develops a theoretical framework that formalizes a guerrilla movement's observed oil pipeline attack decision. The movement's decision is modeled as an infinite horizon Markov Decision Process, where each period it chooses to attack or not attack the pipeline. For extortionary...

This paper models an extortionary relationship between a pipeline operator and a guerrilla movement. Payment and attack decisions are modeled as an infinite-horizon Markov decision process, where each period the oil company chooses to pay or not pay an extortion demand and the movement decides...