This paper studies the real effects of an exogenous UK tax change in recessions and expansions. The tax shock is identified via the measure proposed by Cloyne (2013). Combining local projection techniques (Jordà, 2005) with smooth transition regressions (Granger and Teräsvirta, 1994), tax...

Using corpora of business cycle report sections dealing with monetary and fiscal policy issues from 1999 to 2017 and using methods of unsupervised text scaling (Slapin and Proksch, 2008; Lauderdale and Herzog, 2016), namely Wordfish and Wordshoal we scale the institutions' theoretical/ideological...

This paper extends the identification of unanticipated changes in average federal corporate and personal income tax rates in the United States, as proposed in Mertens and Ravn (2013), to the end of 2019, and assesses their propagation to economies with tight links to the US economy. While cuts...

Men, especially those that are young and less educated, typically bear the brunt of recessions because of the stronger cyclicality of their employment and wages relative to women's. We study the extent to which fiscal policy may offset or worsen these asymmetric effects across gender. Using...

In this paper, we introduce a closed-economy version of the dynamicenvironmental multi-sector general equilibrium modelEMuSeto analyze the effects of financing a labor tax reduction through higher consumption, energy or emissions taxation.We find that, for sufficiently high environmental damage,...

This paper develops a simulation-based solution method to solve large state space macrofinance models using machine learning. We use a neural network (NN) to approximate the expectations in the optimality conditions in the spirit of the stochastic parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA)....

This paper proposes a central fiscal capacity for the euro area that generates transfers in response to euro area, country, and region-specific shocks. The main novelty of this fiscal capacity is that it allows a joint response to these three types of shocks within a single scheme. Based on...

We report new regional evidence indicating that U.S. house prices increase persistently in the face of positive shocks to fiscal spending. In sharp contrast with this fact, though, house prices fall in conventional dynamic general equilibrium models where Ricardian households benefit from the...

This paper studies how investment tax incentives stimulate output in an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We find that the horizon following a positive shock to investment tax incentives is crucial. The shock is highly expansionary in the long run, with the...

This paper analyzes Germany’s unusual labor market experience during the Great Recession. We estimate a general equilibrium model with a detailed labor market block for post-unification Germany. This allows us to disentangle the role of institutions (short-time work, government spending rules)...