In this paper we present new estimates of the effect of households� financial and real wealth on consumption. The analysis makes reference to eleven OECD countries and takes into account quarterly data from 1997 to 2008. Unlike most of the previous literature on European countries, we...

We present a unified and up-to-date overview of temporal aggregation techniques for univariate and multivariate time series models explaining in detail how these techniques are employed. Some empirical applications illustrate the main issues.

In this paper we present an overview of theoretical and empirical contributions exploring the inter-linkages between financial factors and real economic activity. We first revisit the main theoretical approaches that allow financial frictions to be embedded into general equilibrium models, and...

Exponential smoothing models are an important prediction tool in macroeconomics, finance and business. This paper presents the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the multiple source of error framework. The random coefficient state-space...

Forecasting aggregate demand is a crucial matter in all industrial sectors. In this paper, we provide the analytical prediction properties of top-down (TD) and bottom-up (BU) approaches when forecasting aggregate demand, using multivariate exponential smoothing as demand planning framework. We...

In this paper we investigate the main features of the Italian financial cycle, extracted by means of a structural trend-cycle decomposition of the credit-to-GDP ratio, using annual observations from 1861 to 2011. In order to draw conclusions based on solid historical data, we provide a thorough...