comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …

In recessions, unemployment increases despite the—perhaps counterintuitive—fact that the number of unemployed workers … unemployment fluctuations resting on this countercyclicality of gross flows from unemployment into employment. In recessions, the … losses from job displacement and from graduating during recessions, and the insensitivity of unemployment to labor market …

which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …

of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis recessions are more costly than normal recessions in terms of lost output …; and for both types of recession, more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower …

current business cycle phase and of foreign recessions on the likelihood that expansions and recessions come to an end. With … to recessions in a G7 country, we find that the likelihood of them coming to an end is not affected by other G7 countries …' recessions. We find duration dependence of recessions for all G7 countries, i.e. recessions that have gone on for a while are …