This article is a modified version of remarks given at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s policy forum “Policy Lessons from the Economic and Financial Crisis,” December 4, 2009. The presentation was made during a panel discussion that also included James Bullard and John Taylor.

© 1999 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

This paper studies the nature of the errors in preliminary GNP data, It first documents that these errors are large. For example, suppose the prelimimary estimate indicates that real GNP did not change over the recent quarter; then one can be only 80 percent confident that the final estimate...

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