We develop regression-based tests of hypotheses about out of sample prediction errors. Representative tests include ones for zero mean and zero correlation between a prediction error and a vector of predictors. The relevant environments are ones in which predictions depend on estimated...

Complicated (chaotic), global, expectations-driven business cycles in two-dimensional models have been shown to involve non-trivial intersections of stable and unstable manifolds of a (periodic) saddle steady state. Whether similar phenomena may occur in other two-dimensional dynamic economic...

We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preferrence for...

In this paper we eamine the characteristics of market opening news and its impact on the estimated coefficients of the conditional volatility model of the GARCH class.

This paper gives an overview of the types of models available for analysing possible futures of the global economy. It then focuses on dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium models and describes how these models are used for both projections and scenario analysis. Some lessons from recent...