We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preferrence for...

In this paper we eamine the characteristics of market opening news and its impact on the estimated coefficients of the conditional volatility model of the GARCH class.

This paper gives an overview of the types of models available for analysing possible futures of the global economy. It then focuses on dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium models and describes how these models are used for both projections and scenario analysis. Some lessons from recent...

This paper describes Bayesian procedures for forecasting countries' output growth rates and medians of a set of output growth rates using the Gibbs sampler.

The modelling and forecasting of exchange rates and their volatility has important implications for many issues in economics and finance. This paper compares the ability of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, Autoregressive and Mean models to forecast the magnitude of change in 19...

This paper constructs a composite index of coincident economic indicators (CEI), which tracks the state of the Spanish economy better than real GDP, and provides a rigorous dating of the Spanish business cycle turning points.

There as been on-going debate and empirical investigation in the literature as to whether or not the term structure contains information about future inflation. In this paper, the authors present new evidence about the information in the term structure of interest rates about future inflation in...