In this paper we eamine the characteristics of market opening news and its impact on the estimated coefficients of the conditional volatility model of the GARCH class.

This paper gives an overview of the types of models available for analysing possible futures of the global economy. It then focuses on dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium models and describes how these models are used for both projections and scenario analysis. Some lessons from recent...

We develop regression-based tests of hypotheses about out of sample prediction errors. Representative tests include ones for zero mean and zero correlation between a prediction error and a vector of predictors. The relevant environments are ones in which predictions depend on estimated...

This paper constructs a composite index of coincident economic indicators (CEI), which tracks the state of the Spanish economy better than real GDP, and provides a rigorous dating of the Spanish business cycle turning points.

This paper develops analytical methods to forecast the distribution of future returns for a new continuous-time process, the Poisson multi-fractal. The process captures the thick tails, volatility persistence and moment scaling exhibited by many financial time series. It can be interpreted as a...

There as been on-going debate and empirical investigation in the literature as to whether or not the term structure contains information about future inflation. In this paper, the authors present new evidence about the information in the term structure of interest rates about future inflation in...

There as been on-going debate and empirical investigation in the literature as to whether or not the term structure contains information about future inflation. In this paper, the authors present new evidence about the information in the term structure of interest rates about future inflation in...