We investigate the economic significance of trading off empirical validity of models against other desirable model properties, and the potential loss from ’overestimating’ model uncertainty and basing monetary policy on a relatively robust model, or on a suite of models. We find that...

This paper provides real-time evidence on the frequency, size, duration and economic significance of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market. We investigate deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign...

We employ a new decision-theoretic approach to dealing with Knightian uncertainty based on Simon's bounded rationality. The basic tool of this approach is a quantitative answer to the question: For a specified policy, among a set of policies, how much can our assumptions regarding e.g. model and...

Previous empirical studies have suggested an ambiguous relationship between crude oil prices and exchange rates. In contrast to these studies, we explore the possibility of a non-linear relationship between oil prices and the Norwegian exchange rate. We reveal a negative relationship between oil...

I investigate macro effects of higher bank capital requirements on the Norwegian economy and their use as a macroprudential policy instrument under Basel III. To this end, I develop a macroeconometric model where the capital adequacy ratio, lending rates, asset prices and credit interact with...

We investigate whether there is a case for asset prices in interest rates rules within a small econometric model of the Norwegian economy, modeling the interdependence of the real economy, credit and three classes of assets prices: housing prices, equity prices and the nominal exchange rate. We...

This paper investigates the validity of the law of one price (LOP) in international financial markets by examining the frequency, size and duration of inter-market price differentials for borrowing and lending services ('one-way arbitrage'). Using a unique data set for three major capital and...

This paper investigates the presence and characteristics of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency, obtained from Reuters on special...