Value-at-Risk, known as VaR, gives a prediction of potential portfolio losses, with a certain level of confidence, that may be encountered over a specified time period due to adverse price movements in the portfolio's assets. For example, a VaR of 1 million dollars at the 95% level of confidence...

Value-at-Risk (VaR) determines the probability of a portfolio of assets losing a certain amount in a given time period due to adverse market conditions with a particular level of confidence. Value-at-Risk has received considerable attention from financial economists and financial practitioners...

While the combination of several or more models is often found to improve forecasts (Brandt and Bessler, Min and Zellner, Norwood and Schroeder), hypothesis tests are typically conducted using a single model approach 1 . Hypothesis tests and forecasts have similar goals; they seek to define a...

Model selection is often conducted by ranking models by their out-of-sample forecast error. Such criteria only incorporate information about the expected value, whereas models usually describe the entire probability distribution. Hence, researchers may desire a criteria evaluating the...

This research evaluates the interaction of new alternative insurance designs, forward pricing tools and the government revenue protection program while assuming a government loan program is in place. A numerical analysis is conducted using a revenue simulation model that incorporates futures...

This paper presents a manageable and effective way of nesting two popular, yet distinct approaches to obtain optimal hedging ratios - time-series econometrics (GARCH) and dynamic programming (DP). The nested DP-GARCH model is then compared to a DP-GARCH model that accounts for variability in the...

In an effort to improve marketing of their products, many farmers use market advisory services (MAS). To date, there is only fragmented anecdotal information about how farmers actually use the recommendations of market advisory services in their marketing plans, and how they choose among these...

Few farmers utilize futures and options markets to price their crops despite significant educational efforts. This study seeks to analyze producer hedging behavior within the framework of the overall marketing behavior. Producer marketing behavior is modeled as a simultaneous choice between cash...

Experimental economics procedures such as laboratory experimental auctions are increasingly being used to measure consumers' willingness-to-pay. A sealed-bid, fourth-price Vickrey-style auction was used to measure consumers' willingness-to-pay for flavor in beef steaks. Two hundred and...

As opposed to a normal market, an inverted market has a negative price of storage or spread. Market inversions in nearby spreads rarely occur during early months of the crop year since stocks are usually abundant after harvest. However, market inversions frequently occur when the spreads are...