In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and … declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at the end of the nineties of the last century. 2) The business cycle …

An empirical analysis of the business cycle that demonstrates the nature and characteristics of both financial and real … business fluctuations in the US economy during the 1980s is provided. It is argued that the business cycle is fundamentally …

analysis is used to identify potential cycle lengths. In a second step, the explanatory power of cycles for advertising demand … is evaluated by inserting the most important cycle lengths into a regression model. All estimations are based on yearly …

In this paper an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose U.S. real GDP into trend and cycle components … rate in the early seventies. A further result is a remarkable decrease in the volatility of the cycle component and the …

Equilibrium determines leverage, not just interest rates. Variations in leverage cause fluctuations in asset prices …. This leverage cycle can be damaging to the economy, and should be regulated. …

Perron and Wada (J Monet Econ 56:749-65, 2009) propose a new method of decomposition of the GDP in its trend and cycle …, which presents a mixture of normals in the disturbances of the trend and cycle component of output. The obtained trend …

According to the intertemporal-substitution hypothesis, which underlies the typical empirical real business cycle model …-substitution hypothesis. We estimate a fixed-effects life-cycle labor-supply model with more informative data, the triannual micro data of the … labor-market specification of empirical real business cycle models. …