We develop in this paper simple geometrical methods to study local indeterminacy, bifurcations and stochastic (sunspot) equilibria near a steady state, in nonlinear two dimensional economic models. We present stochastic sunspot equilibria, which allows a constructive description of local...

We use the framework implicit in the model of inflation by Shone (1997) to address the analytical properties of a simple dynamic aggregate supply and aggregate demand (AS-AD) model and solve it numerically. The model undergoes a bifurcation as its steady state smoothly interchanges stability...

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the cognitive consistency principle, models agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating subjective forecasting models in real time. This approach provides a stability test for...

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the cognitive consistency principle, models agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating subjective forecasting models in real time. This approach provides a stability test for...

An analysis of the disease of formalism in modern economics. Its manifestation in general equilibrium theory, game theory, the new classical macroeconomics and real business cycle theory. Symptoms of the disease in the current vogue for postmodernism in methodololy. The possibilities for curing...

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomic theories. The econometric learning approach models economic agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating forecasting models in real time. The learning approach provides a stability test for rational expectations and a...

We consider a discrete-time two-sector Cobb-Douglas economy with positive sector specific external effects. We show that indetermincay of steady states and cycles can easily arise with constant or decreasing social returns to scale, and very small market imperfections. This is in sharp contrast...

This paper contributes to the understanding of stochastic economic dynamics with S-shaped law of motion. Applying random dynamical systems theory, we obtain a complete analysis of a stochastic OLG growth model. In the long-run the economy converges either to a state with no capital (poverty...

We address the issue of time varying persistence of shocks to macroeconomic time series variables by proposing a new and parsimonious time series model. Our model assumes that this time varying persistence depends on a linear combination of lagged explanatory variables, where this combination...

This paper studies business cycle interdependence among the industrialized countries since 1958. Using the spillover index methodology recently proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) and based on the generalized VAR framework, I develop an alternative measure of comovement of macroeconomic...