Evgenidis, Anastasios; Siriopoulos, Costas - In: Journal of Economic Studies 43 (2016) 3, pp. 488-503
Purpose – For over two decades numerous studies have provided evidence on the predictive ability of the yield spread for real economic growth. While all this large literature has focussed on how well the spread helps predict real activity, none of these has given an answer on why the spread...