, Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While useful in developing models of forecasting inflation …

The paper examines a wide variety of models forecasting inflation, consumer survey, professional survey, judgmental …, market-derived, and monetary model. Despite differences between forecasting approaches, models produced generally similar …. Supply/demand imbalances explain much of the forecasting error from these models, especially over the short to medium term …

money supply, money velocity, and the unemployment rate. Thus, five parameters, i.e. weights assigned to the deviation in … the money velocity, and the deviation in unemployment rate, are introduced and estimated. The article explores and tests … weight to the deviation in unemployment rate, and moderate weights are assigned to the deviation in the inflation rate, the …

money supply, money velocity, and the unemployment rate. Thus, five parameters, i.e. weights assigned to the deviation in … the money velocity, and the deviation in unemployment rate, are introduced and estimated. The article explores and tests … weight to the deviation in unemployment rate, and moderate weights are assigned to the deviation in the inflation rate, the …

amplifies fluctuations in unemployment and results in excess unemployment volatility relative to the efficient allocation …. Recessions disproportionately affect lowproductivity workers, whose unemployment spells are inefficiently frequent and long. We …-productivity workers. The unemployment consequences are especially severe when nominal interest rates are close to the effective lower …

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them … macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16 sentiment surveys of distinct respondent universes and employ the technique of … principal components analysis to extract the common signals from the surveys. I show that the ability of different population …