This paper examines the changing relationships between the G-7 countries through VAR models for the quarterly growth rates, estimated both over sub-periods and using a rolling data window. Six trivariate models are estimated, all of which include the US and a European (E15) aggregate. In...

In an overlapping generations economy reproductive agents mature safely through two periods of life and face an endogenous probability of surviving for a third period. Given this probability, which depends on aggregate outcomes, each agent maximises her expected lifetime utility by choosing...

This paper provides empirical estimates of contracting models of the Phillips curve for eight middle-income developing countries (Chile, Colombia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey). Following an analytical review, a variety of models with one and more leads and lags are...

Empirical studies often find that the spread between longer and shorter rates does not have predictive power for future longer rates, violating the Expectations Theory (ET). Although the predictive power of the spread for future shorter rates is largely in accordance with the ET, especially when...

This paper studies monthly RPIX inflation in the UK in the context of the change to inflation targeting in 1992. Our empirical models take account of the strong and changing seasonal pattern of inflation, while also focusing on inflation persistence and Phillips curve explanations. In both...

This paper provides an analytical overview of models of segmented urban labor markets in developing countries. It begins by reviewing the characteristics of the labor market in these countries, including institutions and regulations that may lead to segmentation. The wage and employment e?ects...

This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium analysis of public sector corruption and economic growth. In an economy with government intervention and capital accumulation, state-appointed bureaucrats are charged with the responsibility for procuring public goods which contribute to...

This paper examines the roles of domestic and international variables in predicting expansion and recession regimes of the growth rate cycle for Germany, France, Italy and the UK over the period 1972 to 2003, using a range of real and financial variables as leading indicators. The output gap,...

This paper examines the proposition that the business cycle affects seasonality in industrial production, with output being switched to the traditionally low production summer months when recent (annual) growth has been strong. This is investigated through the use of a restricted threshold...

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of bureaucratic corruption on economic growth through a public ?nance transmission channel. At the theoretical level, we develop a simple dynamic general equilibrium model in which fi?nancial intermediaries make portfolio decisions on behalf of...