A recent recovery in the United Kingdom comes after a program of austerity measures announced by the incoming coalition government in 2010. Can the recent pick up in economic activity be attributed to this controversial fiscal policy? This paper uses an empirical approach to test the causal...

This paper explores the relationship between inequality and growth in the context of a unified empirical approach suggested by the theoretical model of Galor and Moav (2004). Based on the model’s prediction, we construct a measure of human capital-to-physical capital ratio in order to...

This paper develops an open-economy intertemporal growth model with We provide evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock returns by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a model with time-varying correlations. Cross-country communality in...

The paper uses long-run GDP data for developed countries drawn from Maddison (2003) to generate deviation cycles for the period from 1870 to 2004. The cyclical deviates are examined for their bilateral cross-correlation values in three separatec periods, those of the first globalization wave...

We extend the vector autoregression (VAR) based expectations hypothesis tests of term structure using recent developments in bootstrap literature. Firstly, we use wild bootstrap to allow for conditional heteroskedasticity in the VAR residuals without imposing any parameterization on this...

This paper examines the changing relationships between the G-7 countries through VAR models for the quarterly growth rates, estimated both over sub-periods and using a rolling data window. Six trivariate models are estimated, all of which include the US and a European (E15) aggregate. In...

This paper provides empirical estimates of contracting models of the Phillips curve for eight middle-income developing countries (Chile, Colombia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey). Following an analytical review, a variety of models with one and more leads and lags are...

Empirical studies often find that the spread between longer and shorter rates does not have predictive power for future longer rates, violating the Expectations Theory (ET). Although the predictive power of the spread for future shorter rates is largely in accordance with the ET, especially when...

This paper studies monthly RPIX inflation in the UK in the context of the change to inflation targeting in 1992. Our empirical models take account of the strong and changing seasonal pattern of inflation, while also focusing on inflation persistence and Phillips curve explanations. In both...