To date, there has been little investigation of the impact of seasonal adjustment on the detection of business cycle expansion and recession regimes. We study this question both analytically and through Monte Carlo simulations. Analytically, we view the occurrence of a single business cycle...

This paper investigates the transmission of price and volatility spillovers across the New York, London, Frankfurt and Paris stock markets under the framework of the multivariate EGARCH model. The model is extended to allow dynamic conditional correlations, with the correlations allowed to...

Recent literature has uncovered evidence that the seasonal pattern in industrial production changes over the business cycle, with seasonality being less pronounced in periods of high growth than in the low growth (or recession) business cycle phase. Matas-Mir and Osborn (2002) examine this...

We examine the ability of six labour market models to account for the business cycle behaviour of UK labour markets when embedded in a stochastic growth model. WE assess the models in terms of : (i) their ability to mimic general business cycle correlations and volatility (ii) their success at...

In a simple, forward looking linear stochastic model we investigate the impact of heterogeneity in expectations formation on the speed of convergence of the learning process of agents towards equilibrium. We …nd that even when heterogeneity does not a¤ect learnability in term of its...