In view of the increasing use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in the macroeconomic projections and the policy process, this paper examines, both conceptually and empirically, alternative notions of potential output within DSGE models. Furthermore, it provides historical...

As both the natural level of output and the New Keynesian output gap cannot be observed in practice, there is quite some debate on the question how these variables look like in practice. Rather than taking the standard approach of using a time trend or the HP-filter to obtain estimates of these...

This paper reviews the usefulness of monetary conditions in the euro area as leading indicators for aggregate demand conditions. Monetary conditions are measured with the MCI concept proposed by the Bank of Canada, and with the yield spread. A central result is that causality runs in both ways...

This paper reviews the usefulness of monetary conditions in the euro area as leading indicators for aggregate demand conditions. Monetary conditions are measured with the MCI concept proposed by the Bank of Canada, and with the yield spread. A central result is that causality runs in both ways...

As the New Keynesian output gap cannot be observed, there is quite some debate on the question what this variable looks like. Rather than taking the standard approach of using a time trend or the HP-filter to estimate it, this paper separates trend from cycle via Bayesian estimation of a New...

In view of the increasing use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in the macroeconomic projections and the policy process, this paper examines, both conceptually and empirically, alternative notions of potential output within DSGE models. Furthermore, it provides historical...

Over the last two decades the intensity of credit standards' tightening during economic contractions has exceeded their easing during expansions among euro area banks. This mechanism is fed by the boom-bust cycle of credit that, as much research has shown, is linked to financial instability with...

We use the recently proposed linear opinion pool methodology of Garratt et al. (2014) to construct real-time ensemble nowcast densities of the output gap for Switzerland over an out-of-sample period from 2003:Q1 to 2015:Q4. The model space consists of a large number of bivariate VAR...

As both the natural level of output and the New Keynesian output gap cannot be observed in practice, there is quite some debate on the question how these variables look like in practice. Rather than taking the standard approach of using a time trend or the HP-filter to obtain estimates of these...

Monetary policy conducted in real time has to take into account the preliminary nature of recent national accounts data. Not only recent data, but also figures dating many years back are potentially subject to revisions. This means that there is a danger that an important part of the central...