The class of Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN) models is introduced that provides a new, general method for modelling and forecasting time series of economic functions. The underlying, continuous economic function (or "signal") is a natural cubic spline whose dynamic evolution is driven by a...

Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN) models are proposed for analysing the dynamics of a large cross-section of yields or asset prices in which contemporaneous observations are functionally related. The FSN models are used to forecast high dimensional yield curves for US Treasury bonds at the one...

The nature of yield curve dynamics and the determinants of the integration order of yields are investigated using a benchmark economy in which the logarithmic expectations theory holds and the regularity condition of a limiting yield and limiting term premium is satisfied. By considering a...

The class of Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN) models is introduced that provides a new, general method for modelling and forecasting time series of economic functions. The underlying, continuous economic function (or 'signal') is a natural cubic spline whose dynamic evolution is driven by a...