Amid an energy sector recovery in the second half of 2016, the Texas economy is positioned to return to its long-term pace of growth this year. However, a significant change in oil prices or further weaknesses in manufacturing remain risks to the outlook

After weathering tumult in its energy and manufacturing sectors in 2015, a diversified Texas economy is poised for slow growth this year. The biggest risk to the outlook: If oil prices average below $30 per barrel, overall job losses could result

Aided by the oil and gas sector’s recovery, the Texas economy rebounded in 2017 and is poised to expand at a faster pace in 2018. However, tight labor markets, disruptions to trade, and potential oil price declines pose risks to the outlook

A monthly estimate of state job growth prepared by payroll processor ADP is a reliable advance indicator of changes in official employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The ADP figures are useful in providing timely analysis of the Texas economy

The cross-section distribution of U.S. import prices exhibits some of the fat-tailed characteristics that are well documented for the cross-section distribution of U.S. consumer prices. This suggests that limited-influence estimators of core import price inflation might outperform headline or...

This paper develops a non-linear DSGE model to assess the interaction between ex-post interventions in credit markets and the build-up of risk ex ante. During a systemic crisis, bailouts relax balance sheet constraints and mitigate the severity of the recession. Ex ante, the anticipation of such...