The recurrent crises in the EMS have bolstered a lively debate about the transition to EMU. Indeed the political economy of regional integration is at odds with the theory of optimum currency areas. Essentially static and based on real criteria alone, the latter is not suited to deal with a...

Using the genetic programming methodology developed in Neely, Weller and Dittmar (1997), we find trading rules that generate significant excess returns for three of four EMS exchange rates over the out-of-sample period 1986-1996. Permitting the rules to use information about the interest rate...

A number of studies have recently noted that monetary integration in the European Monetary Union (EMU) has been accompanied by increased financial integration. This paper examines the channels through which monetary union increased financial integration, using international panel data on...

This paper develops a model showing how EMS interest rate differentials are influenced by fiscal policy. For countries like Italy, with large budget deficits, the commitment to a stable EMS exchange rate can entail costly fiscal adjustment. If the government believes these costs to be excessive,...

Some writers have proposed that under European Monetary Union fiscal policies should be coordinated to reduce the degree of fiscal activism required for macroeconomic stabilization. The paper shows that, in theory, fiscal policy coordination may lower the degree of fiscal flexibility needed to...

Many commentators are skeptical about the long-run viability of the European Monetary Union (EMU). This article compares the EMU with a well-functioning currency union, the U.S., and finds that they are similar based on key criteria. On the basis of this analysis, the EMU may be as viable as the...