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We propose a classical approach to estimate factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models with time variation in the factor loadings, in the factor dynamics, and in the variance-covariance matrix of innovations. When the time-varying FAVAR is estimated using a large quarterly dataset of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010304433
In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305419
forecasting techniques, e.g. correlation forecasts based on historical values and on a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model … varied. We find that the applied volatility forecasting models have a strong influence on the expected net present value … distribution and on the probability of default. In contrast, correlation forecasting models play a minor role. Time resolution and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305715
reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve … environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results … indicate that a topically oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305737
This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for output growth, inflation and the interest rate. The model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical U.S. data vintages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305958
market volatility. They help to improve volatility forecasts in-sample and out-of-sample as well as for different forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010307349
market volatility. They help to improve volatility forecasts in-sample and out-of-sample as well as for different forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010307351
The parameter loss given default (LGD) of loans plays a crucial role for risk-based decision making of banks including risk-adjusted pricing. Depending on the quality of the estimation of LGDs, banks can gain significant competitive advantage. For bank loans, the estimation is usually based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010307952
life but also for animal life, agriculture, tourism, water reservation and evaporation, and many other fields. Regression … is considered a dominant prediction model which is heavily used in forecasting in spite of the difficulties related to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012042740
be served by using Data Mining techniques of forecasting. With the pool of forecasting techniques available, it is … efficiently forecast CRs in QFD. The tool allows for forecasting using various data mining based time series analysis techniques … that strongly assists in doing comparative analysis and evaluating out the most apt technique for forecasting of CRs. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012043180