Many economic and financial time series exhibit time-varying volatility. GARCH models are tools for forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of this volatility. The co-movements in financial markets and financial assets around the globe have recently become the main area of interest of financial...

We investigate consequences of overleveraging and financial-sector stress on real economic activities. When banks become vulnerable, due to high leveraging, and there is a strong feedback between the real and the financial sector, a regime of high financial stress may arise. The vulnerability of...

Abstract. We show that the use of correlations for modeling dependencies may lead to counterintuitive behavior of risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Short- fall (ES), when the risk of very rare events is assessed via Monte-Carlo techniques. The phenomenon is demonstrated for...