Alternative strategies for predicting stock market volatility are examined. In out-of-sample forecasting experiments implied-volatility information, derived from contemporaneously observed option prices or history-based volatility predictors, such as GARCH models, are investigated to determine...

The informational efficiency of the market for options on the German stock index DAX is examined using intraday transactions data. Problems of previous studies on options‐market efficiency, arising from dividend estimation and the early‐exercise effect, are avoided, because the DAX is a...

In this paper we construct a model of stock market, interest rate and output interaction which is a generalization of the well known 1981 model of Blanchard. We allow for imperfect substitutability between stocks and bonds in the asset market and for lagged portfolio adjustment. The reaction of...

This paper investigates the problem of testing for the symmetry of linear time series driven by asymmetric innovations. In particular, we examine the performance of alternative symmetry tests when innovations are fat tailed. Among the tests considered, only the test based on the tail estimator...

We propose a doubly subordinated Lévy process, the normal double inverse Gaussian (NDIG), to model the time series properties of the cryptocurrency bitcoin. By using two subordinated processes, NDIG captures both the skew and fat-tailed properties of, as well as the intrinsic time driving,...