Historically, the theory of forecasting that underpinned actual practice in economics has been based on two key assumptions -- that the model was a good representation of the economy and that the structure of the economy would remain relatively unchanged. In reality, forecast models are...

Using recently developed Monte Carlo methodology, this paper investigates the effect of dynamics and simultaneity on the finite sample properties of maximum likelihood and instrumental variables statistics for testing both nested and non-nested hypotheses. Numerical-analytical approximations...

This paper develops an empirically constant, data-coherent, error cor­rection model for inflation in Australia. The level of consumer prices is a mark-up over domestic and import costs, with adjustments for dynamics and relative aggregate demand. We address issues of cointegration, general to...

Cross-country regressions explaining output growth often obtain a negative effect from inflation. However, that result is not robust, due to the selection of countries in sample, temporal aggregation, and omission of consequential variables in levels. This paper demonstrates some implications of...

This paper proposes a tripartite framework of design, evaluation, and post-evaluation analysis for generating and interpreting economic forecasts. This framework's value is illustrated by re-examining mean square forecast errors from dynamic models and nonlinearity biases from empirical...

This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models,...

"Monte Carlo experimentation in econometrics helps 'solve' deterministic problems by simulating stochastic analogues in which the analytical unknowns are reformulated as parameters to be estimated." (Hendry (1980) With that in mind, Monte Carlo studies may be divided operationally into three...

A cointegration test statistic based upon estimation of an error cor­rection model can be approximately normally distributed when no cointegration is present. By contrast, the equivalent Dickey-Fuller statistic applied to residuals from a static relationship has a non-standard asymptotic...

This paper provides cumulative distribution functions, densities, and finite sample critical values for the single-equation error correction statistic for testing cointegration. Graphs and response surfaces summarize extensive Monte Carlo simulations and highlight simple dependencies of the...