In this note, we gauge the likely impact of the Delta variant on global GDP growth in the second half of this year. To do so, we use the methodology described in Kamin and Kearns (2021), "Pandemic Prospects and the Global Economic Recovery," to compare projections for global GDP based on the...

This note assesses the relative aggressiveness with which central banks around the world have responded to the post-pandemic surge in inflation. We estimate a "cross-sectional Taylor rule" in which changes in policy interest rates since December 2020 for a range of advanced and emerging market...

This paper describes one of the first attempts to gauge the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global trajectory of a key measure of economic activity – industrial production – over the course of 2020. It is also among the first efforts to distinguish between the role of domestic...