This analysis examines how expectations of market participants about future Federal Open Market Committee policy actions have changed over the period since 1989, during which the FOMC made a sequence of changes to improve the transparency of monetary policy.

Central bankers in the United States and abroad must grapple with a broad array of questions about how best to conduct monetary policy. How much should the goal of price stability be emphasized relative to the goal of employment stability? Does central bank independence aid in achieving either...

With the approach of the new millennium last year, many market participants resolved to limit their exposure to Y2K-related risks by cutting back normal trading activities. The Federal Reserve foresaw that the widespread adoption of such a strategy could lead to serious liquidity problems in key...

How is the term structure able to predict future interest rates several months in the future and why is it so steep at the short end? Recent empirical work shows that rates of mean reversion are too slow to help predict short rates or to account for the curve's steepness. We propose that short...