Organic farmers, wholesalers, and retailers need price forecasts to improve their decision-making practices. This paper presents a methodology and protocol to select the best performing method from several time and frequency domain candidates. Weekly farmgate prices for organic fresh produce are...

Cash forward contracting is a common, and often preferred, means of managing price risk for agribusinesses. Despite this, little is known about the performance of cash forward markets, in particular the role they play in price discovery. The lumber market provides a unique case for examining...

Motives for grid pricing of fed cattle have been identified in previous research. Also, estimates of grid pricing exist from feedlot surveys and data generated via mandatory price reports since 2001. However, no research has attempted to estimate factors influencing the extent of grid pricing by...

This study was undertaken to update earlier work by the authors that analyzed selected preharvest pricing strategies utilizing options markets to establish a price floor for part of the crop in the spring, with additional pricing done by use of short hedges in early summer. The timing of...

Little research has been conducted on evaluating out-of-sample forecasts of limited dependent variables. This study describes the large and small sample properties of two forecast evaluation techniques for limited dependent variables: receiver-operator curves and out-of-sample-log-likelihood...

Numerous empirical studies have investigated the profitability of technical trading rules in a wide variety of markets, and many of them found positive profits. Despite positive evidence about profitability and improvements in testing procedures, skepticism about technical trading profits...

Grid pricing is one of the beef industry's answers to improving value coordination in fed cattle transactions. This paper constructs individual carcass-level grid and wholesale beef values. These values are used to evaluate the level of value communication that occurs between wholesale and grid...

This analysis examines a simultaneous estimation option-based approach to forecast futures prices in the presence of daily price limit moves. The procedure explicitly allows for changing implied volatilities by estimating the implied futures price and the implied volatility simultaneously. Using...

This study analyzes the potential risk reduction gains from naive diversification (equal-weighting) among market advisory services for corn and soybeans. The total possible decrease in risk through naive diversification is small, mainly because advisory prices are highly correlated on average....

Basis behavior is generally considered to be the major determinant of hedging success or failure. In the course of our work as contract designers for Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc., we have come to the conclusion that there are many misconceptions and incorrect statements made about "the...