Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USDA and two private services. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors across the agencies were highly correlated. Relative accuracy varied by crop...

Because of the significant investment in the mandatory price reporting program (MPR) by the USDA and by packers, it is important to understand what producers believe about its effectiveness. This study reports results from a survey of feedyards located primarily in Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, and...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of agricultural market advisory services in marketing wheat. Two key performance questions are addressed: 1) Do market advisory services, on average, outperform an appropriate wheat market benchmark? and 2) Do market advisory services...

This research examines the returns to a cattle feeding operation that sorts animals prior to marketing using ultrasound technology. The returns to sorting are between $11 and $25 per head depending on the number of groups the pens in which cattle can be sorted. Sorting faces declining returns....

Both market advisors and researchers have often suggested rollover hedging as a way of increasing producer returns. This study tests whether rollover hedging can increase expected returns for producers. For rollover hedging to increase expected returns, futures prices must follow a...

This paper estimates values of the delivery options implicit in the CBOT corn futures contract. Joint values of the timing and location options are estimated for the years 1989-97. By interacting the effects of the two delivery options, a potentially more accurate estimates are obtained. Two...

Corn price differentials among Illinois elevators can often exceed transportation costs. Using primary data, we examine the effects of micro-market structure variables on the differentials in bids prices offered by Illinois elevators. Our findings suggest the existence of a highly developed,...

Remotely sensed data have been used in the past to predict crop yields. This research attempts to incorporate remotely sensed data into a net farm income projection model. Using in-sample regressions, satellite imagery appears to increase prediction accuracy in the time periods prior to USDA's...

Few empirical basis studies have examined the basis in multiple regions and few have concentrated on cotton. This paper addresses this topic, examining consumption market factors that affect the cotton basis in five U.S. cotton production regions. The seemingly unrelated regression results...

Quality grade, yield grade, and other feedlot performance factors explain much of the variation in profit under grid pricing. Thus, feedlot owners can change profits by adjusting time on feed to influence these performance factors. This research uses growth models, logistic regression, and an...