An extension of Schwartz's model of futures price term structure that includes seasonality is developed. The approach allows futures prices for all maturities to be estimated simultaneously by exploiting arbitrage relationships. An application to wheat futures prices is presented.

This study uses the newly available data from the CFTC to investigate the market impact of futures trading by large hedge funds and CTAs. Regression results show that there is a positive relationship between the trading volume of large hedge funds and CTAs and market volatility. However, a...

This study compares the producers who use future markets with those that don’t use this strategy to figure out the principal characteristics that differentiate them. Moreover there were studied the methods and strategies that farmers use for reducing price risk of soybeans. Besides...

A regime-switching model for analysis of market integration has been developed that incorporates rate of trade information. An application of the methods to United States–China soybean trade demonstrates that the extended trade information allows better interpretation of market...

A model of commodity futures contract basis was developed based on Working’s theory of the price of storage. An error-correction model was estimated for the basis for the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) #2 cotton contract maturing in December during 2000-08. The model was also extended to...

This paper examines three invited papers focused on commodity prices. Public responses to high nominal commodity prices and perceived increases in price risk have ranged from attempts to assign blame, attempts to change contracting arrangements, and development of public policy that...

In recent years a number of market participants called into question the efficiency of the price discovery mechanism in commodity futures markets. They believe that speculators move commodity futures markets away from their fundamentals by distorting prices and exacerbating volatility. The...

This paper examines voluntary market-making behavior, namely scalping, in futures markets. Specifically, this paper studies what factors determine scalpers' entry and exit, and how scalping affects market liquidity and price volatility. The data used for the analysis are time-stamped electronic...

This paper studies the effect of electronic trade on the quality of market price discovery, using the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures market as a laboratory to measure market quality under periods of floor trade, parallel floor and electronic trade, and electronic-only trade....