This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of exchange rate credibility under the European Monetary System (EMS). To that end, we have considered both economic variables and political factors using data of eight currencies participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism, covering...

The paper empirically analyzes asymmetries in the EMS with special reference to their implication for the creation of a monetary union (EMU). Two types of asymmetries are analyzed: those in the form of "German dominance" are detected in the conduct of monetary policies in the EMS, in particular...

The paper aims to develop understanding of why and how central banks have intervened in foreign exchange markets, and whether intervention was (i) coordinated, (ii) sterilized, and (iii) effective. The experience in the G-3 context is compared with the past EMS experience. In addition to foreign...

We provide some new evidence on the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System. To that end, we use of several credibility indicators, analysing the complete EMS history. We also compare the prediction qualities of the different indicators, and apply them to the...

In credible target zone regimes, exchange rates should, according to Krugman's 1991 theory, spend a disproportionate amount of time near the edges of the fluctuation band. The major application of this theory has been to the European Monetary System (EMS), with several authors reporting that...

This paper characterizes exchange market pressure as a nonlinear Markov-switching phenomenon, and examines its dynamics in response to money growth and inflation over three regimes. The empirical results identify episodes of exchange market pressure in the Kyrgyz Republic and confirm the...

This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an augmented target-zone model, explicitly incorporating political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies. The...

This paper examines jointly the empirical relevance of the mean-reversion and the PPP hypotheses in the exchange rate dynamics under the EMS. Given the non-stationarity and the non-linearities characterizing the foreign exchange rate dynamics, this question is studied using a MS-ECM model: it...

We use surveys of British businesses to test the relative influence of monetary and 'real' economic factors on private sector interests towards European monetary integration. We show that firms trading with the European Union have a preference for a fixed exchange rate (in both the European...