The validity of the key behavioral parameters used in the calibration process of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models remains a debated issue in the CGE literature. CGE modelers prefer to borrow from the handful of estimates available in the literature rather than estimating these...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

Suppose the tails of the noise distribution in a regression exhibit power law behavior. Then the distribution of the OLS regression estimator inherits this tail behavior. This is relevant for regressions involving financial data. We derive explicit finite sample expressions for the tail...

An extensive literature in econometrics focuses on finding the exact and approximate first and second moments of the least-squares estimator in the stable first-order linear autoregressive model with normally distributed errors. Recently, Kiviet and Phillips (2005) developed approximate moments...

We present asymptotic power-one tests of regression model functional form for heavy tailed time series. Under the null hypothesis of correct specification the model errors must have a finite mean, and otherwise only need to have a fractional moment. If the errors have an infinite variance then...

This paper considers the issues related to the asymptotic properties of estimators and test statistics in linear quantile regression with structural changes. We first address the issue of estimating a single structural change and derive the asymptotic properties of the estimated break point. The...

We consider the problem of fitting a linear model for a number of variables but without treating any one of these variables as special, in contrast to regression where one variable is singled out as being a dependent variable. Each of the variables is allowed to have error or natural variability...

This article gives the asymptotic properties for nonparametric kernel based density and regression estimators when one of the variables, respectively regressors, had to be pre-estimated. Those variables are known as constructed variables or generatedregressors, and their impact on the -nal...