This study provides evidence that 10-year-ahead inflation expectations adapt very slowly to changes in realized inflation. This evidence derives primarily from yields on 10-year government bonds in a sample of OECD countries, including inflation-indexed bonds where they are available. The study...

We empirically assess the sources of fluctuations in the real exchange rates of four high inflation countries, for which monetary shocks are generally believed to be predominant. In a benchmark model we identify fiscal, monetary, and output shocks based on a general-equilibrium optimizing model....

We develop and estimate an open economy New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in which variable demand elasticities give rise to changes in desired markups in response to changes in competitive pressure from abroad. A parametric restriction on our specification yields the standard NKPC, in which...

One of the most remarkable macroeconomic developments of the past decade has been the widespread decline in inflation despite declines in unemployment rates. For the United States, these seemingly contradictory developments have been reconciled in terms of three factors: (1) an acceleration in...

This paper explores issues that arise in implementing monetary policy under conditions of sustained price stability. We discuss several issues that concern the selection of a central bank's inflation objective under such conditions: price measurement; the behavior of other key variables,...

We describe the inflation targeting framework (ITF) and compare it against hypothetical best-practice based on optimization. The core requirements of the ITF are an explicit long-run inflation goal and a commitment to transparency in policymaking. Advocates and practitioners of the ITF have made...

In this paper we first present supporting evidence of the existence of heterogeneity in inflation dynamics across euro area countries. Based on the estimation of New Phillips Curves for five major countries of the euro area, we find that there is significant inertial (backward looking) behavior...

A growing body of evidence suggests that ongoing relationships between consumers and firms may be important for understanding price dynamics. We investigate whether the existence of such customer relationships has important consequences for the conduct of both long-run and short-run policy. Our...

The volatility of U.S. real GDP growth since 1984 has been markedly lower than that over the previous quarter-century. In this paper, we utilize frequency-domain and VAR methods to distinguish among several competing explanations for this phenomenon: improvements in monetary policy, better...

This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small, open, monetary economy in order to analyze the short-run effects of credible stabilization plans that fix the nominal exchange rate in a regime of free convertibility. In this model inflation acts as a tax on domestic market...