Interpretations of inflation targeting (IT) have ranged widely, from “inflation-only targeting” without regard for output, to cheap talk without effect, to transparency increasing flexibility without cost. We characterize five interpretations of the adoption if IT as shifts between...

This paper analyzes the potential effect of global market competition on inflation dynamics. It does so through the lens of the Calvo model of staggered price setting, which implies that inflation depends on expected future inflation and a measure of marginal costs. I modify the assumption of a...

This paper reports preliminary findings from a Federal Reserve Bank of New York research program aimed at improving survey measures of inflation expectations. We find that seemingly small differences in how inflation is referred to in a survey can lead respondents to consider significantly...

In this paper, I consider the policy implications of two alternative structural interpretations of observed inflation persistence, which correspond to two alternative specifications of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). The first specification allows for some degree of intrinsic...

This essay argues that central bank independence is more important today than at any time in history. Because fiscal incentives for inflation grow as government debt grows, and in view of the huge run-up in government debt in the 1980s, with prospects for continued growth in the 1990s, we...

Remarks at a Community Luncheon Hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, San Antonio, Texas, August 29, 2006 ; "The business of getting it right on inflation is not an easy task. I keep a close eye on all of the inflation measures--especially now, when high energy prices and utility bills...

Remarks at a Community Luncheon hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, San Antonio Branch, Corpus Christi, Texas, June 14, 2006 ; "Against the background of sustained high prices for oil and gasoline and the inevitable propensity of sellers of goods and services to try to pass on cost...

Must the FOMC increase its target before inflation, or will inflation increase and cause the FOMC to increase its target?